January 29, 2005
Carly Fiorina Fails At Hewlett-Packard After Betting Badly http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB110668698388435660,00.html?mod=todays_us_money_and_investing
Since the merger, H-P has lost market share and failed to revive its profit margins. It relinquished the No. 1 position in market share of personal computers last year to Dell. The Compaq merger hasn't helped in other areas either. In the 12 months ended in September, IBM and Dell gained share in network servers, while H-P fell to 26.6%, from 28.7%, Morgan Stanley says. H-P's operating margins in business services have fallen for two years.
The printer business should earn $1.09 a share in 2005 and deserves, Morgan Stanley argues, a P/E multiple comparable to the S&P 500's 18, a bit below rival Lexmark. Taking into account H-P's $2 a share in spare cash, that gets the value to about $20 a share. H-P's stock closed yesterday at $19.66 on the New York Stock Exchange.
In other words, the market continues to ascribe no value to the rest of H-P's business.
Innovation Ships Out - outsourcing - impact on innovation and supply chains as big U.S. computer makers move R&D overseas - CIO Magazine Jan 15,2005
Morgan Stanley estimates that the manufacturing for 89 percent of American brand-name laptops are outsourced today. What's more, many of these famous computer brand names don't even design their machines anymore. New models are chosen from a shelf of fully functioning prototypes offered up by a handful of Taiwanese companies. Quanta's ability to design and build new laptops from scratch has helped it gain a 25 percent share of all laptops sold in the United States.
Spending on R&D by U.S. companies declined more in 2002 (3.9 percent) than it has since the National Science Foundation began tracking the number in 1953. EMS companies have had to continually take on higher-order, more complex pieces of the electronics supply chain to keep their hollow-cheeked profit margins (overall industry average is 2 percent to 5 percent) from disappearing altogether. Design work typically has higher gross profit margins, between 8 percent and 11 percent, according to iSuppli's Pick.
But HP, for one, does try to limit the number of EMS companies it deals with, partly to shave costs, and also because the increased IT demands of monitoring the EMS's processes can be quite expensive for highly configurable products such as high-end servers. "If we want to create a build-to-order process for customers with an EMS, there is a lot more intimacy required in the information we exchange with the EMS,"
All but one (HP) declined to comment on the growing trend in outsourcing the "D" in R&D. At the same time, the EMS companies we spoke to denied they have any plans to expand into the "R" part of R&D or offer their own products for sale.
Expect double-digit growth — again
Despite slower growth rates in end-equipment markets and competition from original design manufacturers (ODMs), the electronics manufacturing services (EMS) industry will grow 13% to $123 billion in 2005. That greater dependence on EMS providers will translate into strong growth in 2005. "We are expecting 12% to 15% growth in 2005," says Sachs.
By contrast, ODMs—which are mostly in Asia and typically build cell phones, low-end computers and some consumer electronics equipment — will design a product (using its own design or intellectual property (IP) that it has licensed), manufacture the product, label it with the OEM's name and ship it to the OEM's customers. Although the ODM market is smaller than the EMS market, its growth rate is higher. For instance in 2004, the EMS industry grew 20% to $109 billon. ODM revenue grew 25% to $59 billion. For 2003 to 2008, ODM is projected to have a compound annual growth rate of 19.5%, compared to the 14.6% projected compound annual growth for EMS providers over the same timeframe.
Study Finds Offshoring Less Important Than Other Factors to Job Creation and Destruction in Bay Area
The study also identified five competitive capabilities that investors and business leaders believe are key strengths of the Bay Area. In addition to three capabilities traditionally linked to the region (entrepreneurship/new business creation, research in advanced technologies and bringing new concepts to market), the analysis pointed to two other competitive capabilities not always in the spotlight:
- Cross-disciplinary research - coordinating and integrating advanced learning across industries and scientific disciplines.
- Global integrated management - managing and coordinating globally distributed business functions and networks.
- Jobs aligned with these five regional strengths, such as high-level research, strategic marketing and global business and headquarter management activities, are expected to experience solid growth.
What It's Like To Pull The Plug On A Multimillion-Dollar Project
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