死んでしまったら私のことなんか誰も話さない

Carly Fiorina Fails At Hewlett-Packard After Betting Badly http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB110668698388435660,00.html?mod=todays_us_money_and_investing

PC事業ではDellに首位を奪われ、サーバではIBMにシェアを奪われ、現在はウォール街ではプリンタ以外の事業には価値がないと判断されている、厳しいhpの現状について書かれています。

Since the merger, H-P has lost market share and failed to revive its profit margins. It relinquished the No. 1 position in market share of personal computers last year to Dell. The Compaq merger hasn't helped in other areas either. In the 12 months ended in September, IBM and Dell gained share in network servers, while H-P fell to 26.6%, from 28.7%, Morgan Stanley says. H-P's operating margins in business services have fallen for two years.

The printer business should earn $1.09 a share in 2005 and deserves, Morgan Stanley argues, a P/E multiple comparable to the S&P 500's 18, a bit below rival Lexmark. Taking into account H-P's $2 a share in spare cash, that gets the value to about $20 a share. H-P's stock closed yesterday at $19.66 on the New York Stock Exchange.

In other words, the market continues to ascribe no value to the rest of H-P's business.

今日、儲かっているのはDellだけだといわれるほど、PCはコモディティ化の激しい商品ですが、その背景に目をやると、バリューチェーンのかなり上流までアウトソーシングされている現状が見えてきます。

Innovation Ships Out - outsourcing - impact on innovation and supply chains as big U.S. computer makers move R&D overseas - CIO Magazine Jan 15,2005
http://www.cio.com/archive/011505/outsourcing.html

Morgan Stanley estimates that the manufacturing for 89 percent of American brand-name laptops are outsourced today. What's more, many of these famous computer brand names don't even design their machines anymore. New models are chosen from a shelf of fully functioning prototypes offered up by a handful of Taiwanese companies. Quanta's ability to design and build new laptops from scratch has helped it gain a 25 percent share of all laptops sold in the United States.

Spending on R&D by U.S. companies declined more in 2002 (3.9 percent) than it has since the National Science Foundation began tracking the number in 1953. EMS companies have had to continually take on higher-order, more complex pieces of the electronics supply chain to keep their hollow-cheeked profit margins (overall industry average is 2 percent to 5 percent) from disappearing altogether. Design work typically has higher gross profit margins, between 8 percent and 11 percent, according to iSuppli's Pick.

But HP, for one, does try to limit the number of EMS companies it deals with, partly to shave costs, and also because the increased IT demands of monitoring the EMS's processes can be quite expensive for highly configurable products such as high-end servers. "If we want to create a build-to-order process for customers with an EMS, there is a lot more intimacy required in the information we exchange with the EMS,"

All but one (HP) declined to comment on the growing trend in outsourcing the "D" in R&D. At the same time, the EMS companies we spoke to denied they have any plans to expand into the "R" part of R&D or offer their own products for sale.

Expect double-digit growth — again
http://www.purchasing.com/article/CA497326.html

Despite slower growth rates in end-equipment markets and competition from original design manufacturers (ODMs), the electronics manufacturing services (EMS) industry will grow 13% to $123 billion in 2005. That greater dependence on EMS providers will translate into strong growth in 2005. "We are expecting 12% to 15% growth in 2005," says Sachs.

By contrast, ODMs—which are mostly in Asia and typically build cell phones, low-end computers and some consumer electronics equipment — will design a product (using its own design or intellectual property (IP) that it has licensed), manufacture the product, label it with the OEM's name and ship it to the OEM's customers. Although the ODM market is smaller than the EMS market, its growth rate is higher. For instance in 2004, the EMS industry grew 20% to $109 billon. ODM revenue grew 25% to $59 billion. For 2003 to 2008, ODM is projected to have a compound annual growth rate of 19.5%, compared to the 14.6% projected compound annual growth for EMS providers over the same timeframe.

このように、9割近く製造工程そのものはEMSへアウトソースされ、しかも、デザインにおいても、1/4は台湾のEMSが手がけたものだと聞くと、hpブランドのPCを買うのが馬鹿馬鹿しいというか、中国のLenovoへ売却されたことで話題を呼んだIBMのThinkpadも、心配するほど品質は落ちなかったりして…などと思いました。

エンジニアの仕事が少しずつ賃金の安い国へと徐々にシフトしているマクロなトレンド自体を否定するのは難しいでしょうが、アメリカの他の土地よりも労働者当たりの付加価値が高いシリコンバレーでは、下記のような調査も発表されています。今後、生活コストの高い国で生きていく・更なる自分の市場価値アップを狙うのであれば、参考になるかもしれません。

Study Finds Offshoring Less Important Than Other Factors to Job Creation and Destruction in Bay Area
http://www.jointventure.org/inthenews/pressreleases/globalsiliconvalley/071504offshoringstudy.html

The study also identified five competitive capabilities that investors and business leaders believe are key strengths of the Bay Area. In addition to three capabilities traditionally linked to the region (entrepreneurship/new business creation, research in advanced technologies and bringing new concepts to market), the analysis pointed to two other competitive capabilities not always in the spotlight:

• Cross-disciplinary research - coordinating and integrating advanced learning across industries and scientific disciplines.
• Global integrated management - managing and coordinating globally distributed business functions and networks.
• Jobs aligned with these five regional strengths, such as high-level research, strategic marketing and global business and headquarter management activities, are expected to experience solid growth.

チャンスは、分野や国といった「ボーダー」、異なるもの同士が交わるところにあると言えそうです。

hpからPC市場首位の座を奪ったDellの強みは、BTOのプロセス（オペレーション能力並びにIT等も含めた「システム」）を自前で作り上げた点であるというのはよく指摘されることですが、そのDellは、某ERPパッケージ（おそらく文面から推察するにSAP？）のインプリを途中で断念し、インハウスで開発しているようです。

What It's Like To Pull The Plug On A Multimillion-Dollar Project
http://www.cio.com/archive/121504/cio_project.html

ビジネスにおけるソフトウェア（とりわけパッケージソフトウェア）についても、いま「モジュール化」を読みながら色々考えています。 もう少し考えが整理できたら書こうと思います。余談ですが、この本むちゃくちゃ面白いです。アドレナリンが出て寝れなくなります。

モジュール化―新しい産業アーキテクチャの本質
	青木 昌彦　安藤 晴彦 東洋経済新報社　2002-02 売り上げランキング　14,699 おすすめ平均 Amazonで詳しく見る　　by G-Tools